Weekly Market Insight

Latest Economic & Market Update 10th March 2021

10th March 2021

Good afternoon, it is March 10th 2021 and here is your economic and market update from BlackBee. 

Today’s focus:

  • Housing completion in Dublin hits 10 year high in Q4 2020 but commencements fall.
  • ERSI revise growth forecast downwards for 2021.

The latest Dublin Economic Monitor, a report compiled on behalf of the city’s four local authorities, showed that housing completions in Dublin hit a 10 year high in Q4 2020. Despite the pandemic causing disruption to the construction sector, 2,472 new homes were completed in Dublin in Q4. The number of homes completed in Q4 2020 was 21% higher than the same period in 2019. Although the completion of new housing was much needed to help address the ongoing housing supply crisis, the report highlighted that housing commencement notices, an indicator of future supply were down 25% in the same quarter. The first quarter of 2021 is also likely to see a further regression due to Covid-19 restrictions. (Source: Irish Times).

The ERSI have revised downwards its growth forecasts for the Irish economy this year. Karina Doorley and Kieran McQuinn said in their opening statement to the Oireachtas Committee on Budgetary Oversight that their assumptions about restrictions this year did not factor in a level 5 lockdown. As a result, their growth forecast this year will be revised downwards to 4% from Decembers 4.9% forecast. The ERSI also expect unemployment to average 27% in Q1 with unemployment falling through the rest of the year to stand at just above 10% at the end of 2021. The ERSI forecast unemployment to average around 8% in 2022. The ERSI caution that its forecasts assume that vaccines will be rolled out successfully to most of the general population in the second half of this year. (Source: RTÉ).

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Global Market Update
(as at close of markets 09/03/2021)