Weekly Market Insight

Latest Economic & Market Update 22nd January 2021

22nd January 2021

Good afternoon, it is January 22nd 2021 and here is your economic and market update from BlackBee.

Today’s focus:

  • Rise in unemployment for 2021 – Central Bank of Ireland (CBI)
  • 2 year housing output will be insufficient to meet national demand

Unemployment will continue to rise this year according to the Central Bank’s latest quarterly bulletin. The regulator forecasts the traditional non-Covid adjusted unemployment rate to reach 9.3% this year before reducing to 7.8% in 2022. In 2019, average annual unemployment rate was 5% while 2020’s rate is estimated to be 6.2%. The rise in unemployment is predicted to level out in Q4 of this year following the planned national vaccine roll out. 2020’s strongest performing employment roles were related to medical information, community and social service and nursing. Aperee, the nursing home operator created by Blackbee, employs over 560 front line workers. (Source: Central Bank of Ireland)

The Central Bank’s Q1 2021 Bulletin also forecasts an insufficient level of housing output for the next two years. Factoring in the current closure of non-essential construction, predicted housing completions for 2021 and 2022 are 21,500 and 23,500 units respectively. 2020 full year data on housing completions is yet to be released but CBI’s expectations are that 18,500 new housing units were delivered last year. The Central Bank’s December 2019 report “Population Change and Housing Demand in Ireland” estimated an average of around 34,000 new dwellings would be required each year up to 2030 to keep pace with the projected growth in the population. Given forecasted growth in unemployment and an insufficient housing output, Blackbee intend to deliver social housing units across Ireland via the refitting and refurbishment of existing housing stock. Blackbee’s Social Housing Bond Series II launches today. The investment will aggregate a portfolio of 50+ units across urban settings in Cork, Dublin, Limerick and Kerry.

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Global Market Update
(as at close of markets 21/01/2021)